Who’s Number One?
Ever since A-Rod’s untimely hip injury, almost everyday at work has been spent debating who should be the number one pick as many have their fantasy draft quickly approaching. Do you go with the veteran, two time NL MVP Albert Pujols? Or do you take the more risky route and snag up and coming five tool stud shortstop Hanley Ramirez? For me, it’s not even a question, you take Hanley without hesitation and ride him hard (no homo) to the glory land that is fantasy sports supremacy!
Even with a sore shoulder Hanley was still a 30/30 guy (33 HR and 35 SB) in 2008 while batting .301 and scoring 125 runs and driving in 67 all at the ripe age of 24. Hanley has increased his HR and OPS in each of his three seasons in the majors and should only get better as he continues to mature.
Pujols put up even better numbers last season. In 148 games he stroked 37 HR 116 RBI a .357 AVG and scored 100 runs. If you look at it simply the stat lines then you go with Pujols every day of the week, unless you are some sicko that gets a hard on for stolen bases. However, what gives Han Ram the edge is the two 50 SB years in 2006 and 2007 (sorry, I might be that guy) and more importantly that he plays shortstop, a very weak position in comparison to first base. Lets compare both players to see how much of a drop off there is the deeper you dig into each position. To do this we will compare each to the fifth and tenth players based on default ranking. While obviously not perfect, it is a pretty good way to show the positional strength at first base compared to the weakness at shortstop.
Pujols: .357 AVG 37HR 116 RBI 100 Runs 7 SB
5th R. Howard: .251 AVG 48 HR 146 RBI 105 Runs 1 SB
10th A. Gonzalez: .279 AVG 36 HR 116 RBI 103 Runs 0 SB
As you can see, really not much of a difference at all to Ryan Howard and even Adrian Gonzalez is not too too far away.
Hanley: .301 AVG 33 HR 67 RBI 125 Runs 35 SB
5th D. Jeter: .300 AVG 11 HR 69 RBI 88 Runs 11 SB
10th M. Aviles: .325 AVG 10 HR 55 RBI 68 Runs 8 SB
Much bigger difference. While Derek Jeter is an iconic god to some, he is becoming a fantasy dud with no power and a decreasing numbers across the board. It is safe to say the gap between him and Hanley is far greater than that between Howard and Pujols. The same can be said for Aviles.
First base is definitely the deepest position this season with short stop being one of the weakest. While Pujols may give you better numbers overall, it will be much easier to find a good first baseman later in than draft than another shortstop. So if on draft day you find that the number one overall pick has fallen into your lap, take Han Ram and never look back!
Tags: Albert Pujols, fantasy baseball, Hanley Ramirez, number one, tdpenny2000
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February 10th, 2010 at 5:48 am
[...] Last year I made a strong argument that Hanley Ramirez should be in this spot and ended up putting him atop my rankings citing positional scarcity and the potential for 30 HR’s and 50 SB’s as the main reasons. However, Hanley has taken a step back statistically, at least in home runs and stolen bases while Pujols increased in HR total by ten from 2008 to 2009 and his runs and RBI by 20. While shortstop is still weak and first base is deeper than ever, feel comfortable taking Pujols number one. If there is one thing you want in Fantasy sports it is consistency and Pujols is as close of a guarantee as you can get. [...]